Iran Nuclear Negotiations Optimism
On the final day of the “Great Prophet” Payambar-e-Azam military exercise, Iran fired 16 ballistic missiles at Israel, escalating tensions between the two countries. As stated by Major General Hossein Salami, Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), this is a serious warning to the Zionist regime that even the smallest mistake made by Israel will be met with retaliation.
The Iranian military drills follow a meeting between US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is opposed to efforts to resurrect the 2015 nuclear deal.
Israel is the most adamantly opposed to implementing the nuclear deal. Bennett criticized Iran’s nuclear enrichment program and claimed that the money Iran receives from sanctions relief will be used to acquire weapons to harm Israelis. Israel has also hinted at an attack on Iran.
In the last week of December 2021, negotiators from Iran and the five world powers, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China (as well as the United States, which acts as a mediator between the two sides), gathered in Vienna, Austria, to continue negotiations on restoring the 2015 nuclear deal. Negotiations were resumed after being halted because Iran’s negotiators needed to return home for consultations. Negotiations, which are now in their eighth round, have been stalled for more than five months due to the emergence of a new hardline government in Iran, led by conservative Ebrahim Raisi.
In the previous round of talks, which took place in the second week of this month, Iran agreed to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to reinstall a camera that would allow UN inspectors to observe Iran’s nuclear facility in Karaj, which produces advanced centrifuges. Last June, the cameras were tampered with in what Iran calls an act of sabotage by its regional rival, Israel. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its participation.
Nuclear talks are, in fact, showing signs of improvement. There has been progress in talks and understanding between the United States and Iran on which to base negotiations on which aspects of Iran’s nuclear program could be limited in exchange for the lifting of Washington’s sanctions on Tehran.
Western countries concerns about nuclear enrichment capable of being used as a weapon have prompted Iran to re-limit the program previously agreed to under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Iran has stated numerous times that it only wishes to develop a civilian nuclear program for peaceful purposes. Despite the fact that, in retaliation for the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran has exceeded its nuclear enrichment limit since 2018. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal in 2018 and imposed harsh sanctions, including on the oil sector, which is vital to the Gulf state. Iran’s crude oil exports plummeted, and international oil companies pulled out of the agreement, slamming the Iranian economy hard.
Iran is not entirely to blame. To retaliate for the US economic slap, Iran enriched uranium to 60% purity. This is a technical step in the 90% process of creating an atomic bomb. This is the concern of the Western world. Despite Iran’s claims that it only wants to develop a civilian nuclear program, the West believes that its stockpile of enriched uranium will be used to develop nuclear weapons, including atomic bombs.
Iran’s major nuclear move has also alarmed its regional adversaries, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel is the most adamantly opposed to the nuclear deal. Despite his admission, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stated that Israel is “not automatically” opposed to the nuclear deal.
Bennett, on the other hand, wants the world’s powerful countries to take a more decisive stance. Israel prefers a more results-oriented approach and believes Iran is negotiating from a position of extreme weakness. Unfortunately, the rest of the world sees Iran as having a strong bargaining position.
In response to the threat posed by the Payambar-e-Azam military exercise, Israel launched an attack on Syria’s port of Latakia. Over the last four years, Israel has targeted military sites and bases used by Syrian regime forces and Iranian-backed militias.
This is also a source of concern for Saudi Arabia. In a speech to the Shura Council, King Salman urged Iran to stop supporting militias in the Gulf region and to join international efforts to resurrect the nuclear deal.
King Salman is concerned about the region’s security policy and the stability of the volatile Iranian regime. The Saudis cited Iran’s “negative side” which included the establishment and support of sectarian and armed militias, the systematic deployment of its military capabilities in regional countries, and the country’s refusal to cooperate with the international community on its nuclear program and ballistic missile development.
Saudi Arabia and Gulf states have long stated that Iran must stop slandering and accusing the Gulf region by providing financial and military support to its network of proxy militias in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, has clearly blamed Iran for the region’s chaos. As a result, the GCC requested that the ongoing talks in Vienna address this issue, as it directly affects the Gulf region.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said in a recent statement that the parties involved in the ongoing nuclear talks in Vienna could reach an agreement soon. According to the Foreign Minister, as long as there is good will, the agreement can be reached quickly.
We can see that the Vienna talks have resulted in Iranian demands against the US. As part of the new agreement, Iran has urged the US and its allies to commit to allowing Tehran to export crude oil. Tehran’s historic agreement with world powers granted Iran sanctions relief in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program.
It is logical for Iran to seek full economic concessions under the nuclear agreement. The topics that should have been agreed upon in the Vienna negotiations this time should have been guarantees and the abolition of sanctions. If all sanctions are lifted, Iran’s nuclear program will be scaled back.
*Muhammad Husein Heikal, Analyst Economic Action (EconAct) Indonesia and National Alliance Caucus Member. After completing undergraduate studies at the University of North Sumatra and short courses at Gadjah Mada University and Diponegoro University, he will continue his postgraduate studies at Padjadjaran University. Writes for Investor Daily, Republika, Kompas, The Jakarta Post, Bisnis Indonesia, Media Indonesia, Alinea.id, and Detik.com.
